V-Lab
Tradr 2X SNDK Long Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
175.45%
decreased by 5.20%
1 Week
183.66%
increased by 3.01%
1 Month
202.11%
increased by 21.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 200.00 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 199.6633 | 2.46** |
| αARCH | 0.1020 | 0.59 |
| βGARCH | 0.9181 | 12.35*** |
| νDF | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
0.918
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 199.6633 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1020 | 0.59 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9181 | 12.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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