V-Lab
Tradr 2X SNDK Long Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
250.56%
decreased by 8.83%
1 Week
249.55%
decreased by 9.84%
1 Month
246.70%
decreased by 12.69%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 230.3484 | 6.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0723 | 1.26 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9436 | 39.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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