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State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

42.72%

increased by 4.21%

1 Week

42.66%

increased by 4.15%

1 Month

42.45%

increased by 3.94%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~104 daysv = 10.16 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.8164
1.67*
αscore0.0564
7.87***
βpersistence0.9933
230.10***
νDF10.1641
0.81

0.993

Persistence

104d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.8164
1.67*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0564
7.87***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9933
230.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.1641
0.81

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

104 days