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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

37.84%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Week

37.84%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Month

37.86%

decreased by 1.02%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 daysv = 9.88 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.7849
1.64
αARCH0.0558
7.91***
βGARCH0.9934
231.62***
νDF9.8813
0.84

0.993

Persistence

105d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.7849
1.64
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0558
7.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9934
231.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.8813
0.84

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days