V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
37.10%
increased by 2.61%
1 Week
37.11%
increased by 2.62%
1 Month
37.16%
increased by 2.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7252 | 6.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0559 | 31.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9933 | 902.99*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.7520 | 3.37*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
Other State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs