V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
35.20%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
35.24%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
35.39%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~104 daysv = 9.92 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.7354 | 1.65* |
| αARCH | 0.0558 | 7.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9933 | 228.46*** |
| νDF | 9.9222 | 0.83 |
0.993
Persistence104d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7354 | 1.65* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0558 | 7.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9933 | 228.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.9222 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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