V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.75%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
37.75%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Month
37.77%
decreased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 daysv = 9.88 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.7722 | 1.64 |
| αARCH | 0.0557 | 7.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9934 | 230.76*** |
| νDF | 9.8848 | 0.83 |
0.993
Persistence105d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7722 | 1.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0557 | 7.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9934 | 230.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.8848 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
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