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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

37.10%

increased by 2.61%

1 Week

37.11%

increased by 2.62%

1 Month

37.16%

increased by 2.67%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.7252
6.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0559
31.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9933
902.99***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.7520
3.37***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

103 days