State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
37.02%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
37.03%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
37.09%
decreased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7628 | 6.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0560 | 31.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9933 | 910.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.7404 | 3.39*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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