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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

37.02%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

37.03%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Month

37.09%

decreased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.7628
6.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0560
31.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9933
910.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.7404
3.39***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

104 days