Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

31.17%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Week

31.27%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Month

31.65%

decreased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~103 daysv = 9.95 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.7004
1.66*
αARCH0.0557
7.94***
βGARCH0.9933
226.36***
νDF9.9494
0.83

0.993

Persistence

103d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.7004
1.66*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0557
7.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9933
226.36***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.9494
0.83

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

103 days