V-Lab
Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
5.21%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
5.33%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
5.68%
increased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1592 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0805 | 4.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9463 | 40.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4423 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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