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V-Lab

Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

5.21%

increased by 0.12%

1 Week

5.33%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

5.68%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1592
3.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0805
4.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9463
40.64***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4423
0.50

Persistence:

0.946

Half-life:

13 days