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V-Lab

Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.73%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

4.84%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

5.17%

increased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Vaneck Emerging Market B ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1452
4.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0892
5.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9613
77.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.3862
0.50

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

18 days