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V-Lab

Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

13.34%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

13.62%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Month

14.57%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3887
10.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1162
26.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9770
381.36***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.6312
4.30***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days