V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
12.89%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
13.21%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
14.23%
increased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-lifev = 9.67 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3840 | 2.57** |
| αARCH | 0.1152 | 6.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9771 | 96.12*** |
| νDF | 9.6700 | 1.06 |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3840 | 2.57** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1152 | 6.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9771 | 96.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.6700 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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