Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
23.93%
increased by 4.80%
1 Week
23.72%
increased by 4.59%
1 Month
22.98%
increased by 3.85%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-lifev = 9.99 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3904 | 2.61*** |
| αscore | 0.1140 | 6.73*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9775 | 99.78*** |
| νDF | 9.9937 | 1.01 |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3904 | 2.61*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1140 | 6.73*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9775 | 99.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.9937 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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