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Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

23.93%

increased by 4.80%

1 Week

23.72%

increased by 4.59%

1 Month

22.98%

increased by 3.85%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2011 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-lifev = 9.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.3904
2.61***
αscore0.1140
6.73***
βpersistence0.9775
99.78***
νDF9.9937
1.01

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.3904
2.61***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1140
6.73***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9775
99.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.9937
1.01

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days