V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.34%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
13.62%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
14.57%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3887 | 10.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1162 | 26.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9770 | 381.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.6312 | 4.30*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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