Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
14.95%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
15.13%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Month
15.75%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-lifev = 9.78 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3779 | 2.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.1151 | 6.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9770 | 97.62*** |
| νDF | 9.7840 | 1.05 |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3779 | 2.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1151 | 6.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9770 | 97.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.7840 | 1.05 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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