Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

11.69%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

12.09%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

13.36%

increased by 0.96%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-lifev = 9.71 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3769
2.58***
αARCH0.1151
6.77***
βGARCH0.9771
96.75***
νDF9.7077
1.06

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3769
2.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1151
6.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9771
96.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.7077
1.06

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days