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V-Lab
V-Lab

Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

12.89%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

13.21%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

14.23%

increased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-lifev = 9.67 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3840
2.57**
αARCH0.1152
6.75***
βGARCH0.9771
96.12***
νDF9.6700
1.06

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3840
2.57**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1152
6.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9771
96.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.6700
1.06

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days