V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.49%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
15.40%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
17.49%
increased by 2.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8373 | 198.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2035 | 39.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0654 | 7.36*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6440 | 16.48*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3124 | 6.70*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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