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V-Lab

Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

15.11%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

15.70%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

17.49%

increased by 1.86%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8378
198.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2027
39.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0654
7.33***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6392
16.35***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3165
6.78***

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days