Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.79%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
15.89%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
16.45%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8398 | 54.47*** |
| γleverage | 0.1991 | 9.48*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0833 | 1.86* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7535 | 9.06*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.1848 | 2.40** |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8398 | 54.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1991 | 9.48*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0833 | 1.86* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7535 | 9.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1848 | 2.40** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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