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V-Lab

Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

15.79%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

15.89%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Month

16.45%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2011 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8398
54.47***
γleverage0.1991
9.48***
λ₁tau intercept0.0833
1.86*
λ₂forecast adj.0.7535
9.06***
λ₃tau persistence0.1848
2.40**

0.939

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8398
54.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1991
9.48***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0833
1.86*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7535
9.06***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1848
2.40**

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days