V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
12.10%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
12.69%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
14.39%
increased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 97% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 97% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0527 | 7.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.1714 | 6.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7069 | 34.86*** |
| γleverage | 0.1666 | 3.31*** |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0527 | 7.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1714 | 6.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7069 | 34.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1666 | 3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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