V-Lab
Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
13.55%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
14.00%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
15.37%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.65) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.1161 | 8.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8516 | 52.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.6489 | 6.80*** |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1161 | 8.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8516 | 52.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6489 | 6.80*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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