V-Lab
T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
81.54%
decreased by 7.34%
1 Week
89.32%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
99.22%
increased by 10.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 2.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.5799 | 14.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2471 | 12.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5644 | 29.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 2.5278 | 13.99*** |
Persistence:
0.812
Half-life:
3 days
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