Skip to main content
V-Lab

abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

24.13%

increased by 2.39%

1 Week

23.74%

increased by 2.00%

1 Month

22.42%

increased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.29) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0326
10.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0629
14.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9040
171.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2890
-5.59***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days