V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
24.13%
increased by 2.39%
1 Week
23.74%
increased by 2.00%
1 Month
22.42%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.29) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0326 | 10.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0629 | 14.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9040 | 171.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2890 | -5.59*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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