abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.50%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
22.67%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
23.09%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2440 | 6.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0648 | 3.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8579 | 20.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2074 | 1.37 |
| γ2 | -0.3264 | -1.38 |
| γ3 | 0.2456 | 1.20 |
| γ4 | -0.4167 | -1.85* |
| γ5 | 0.8390 | 2.72*** |
| γ6 | -1.0492 | -2.17** |
| γ7 | 0.6577 | 1.35 |
| γ8 | 0.0097 | 0.03 |
| γ9 | -0.3115 | -2.19** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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