abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
24.82%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
24.53%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
23.54%
decreased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0560 | 6.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0669 | 3.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9022 | 42.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0274 | -1.53 |
| γ2 | 0.0571 | 2.25** |
| γ3 | -0.0428 | -3.51*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0560 | 6.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0669 | 3.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9022 | 42.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0274 | -1.53 |
| γ2 | 0.0571 | 2.25** |
| γ3 | -0.0428 | -3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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