V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
25.31%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
24.96%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
23.79%
decreased by 1.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0600 | 6.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0686 | 3.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8992 | 41.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0278 | -1.53 |
| γ2 | 0.0570 | 2.23** |
| γ3 | -0.0417 | -3.42*** |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0600 | 6.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0686 | 3.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8992 | 41.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0278 | -1.53 |
| γ2 | 0.0570 | 2.23** |
| γ3 | -0.0417 | -3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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