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V-Lab

abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

32.71%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

33.06%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

34.05%

increased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1874
6.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0679
3.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8792
29.68***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0447
0.82
γ2-0.1061
-1.36
γ30.1525
3.25***
γ4-0.1686
-3.51***
γ50.2679
3.81***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days