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V-Lab

Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

18.53%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

18.53%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

18.53%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0136
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

1.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1114.6403
0.00
γ2-282.1858
-2.01**
γ3263.7428
2.75***
γ4-27.0662
-0.29
γ5-342.2593
-3.09***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days