Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
18.53%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
18.53%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
18.53%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0136 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 114.6403 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -282.1858 | -2.01** |
| γ3 | 263.7428 | 2.75*** |
| γ4 | -27.0662 | -0.29 |
| γ5 | -342.2593 | -3.09*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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