V-Lab
Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
29.88%
1 Week
80,259.07%
1 Month
49,060,778,632,223,105,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 100% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.0000 | 239.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0006 | 25.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -78.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3283 | 109.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 10.00*** |
Persistence:
0.751
Half-life:
2 days
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