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V-Lab

Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

29.88%

decreased by 65.50%

1 Week

80,259.07%

increased by 80,163.69%

1 Month

49,060,778,632,223,105,000.00%

increased by 49,060,778,632,223,105,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 100% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
239.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0006
25.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-78.42***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.07
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3283
109.07***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
10.00***

Persistence:

0.751

Half-life:

2 days