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V-Lab

Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

199.51%

increased by 2.84%

1 Week

208.14%

increased by 11.47%

1 Month

247.32%

increased by 50.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1088 trading days (~4.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
102.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7494
221.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-53.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
4.97***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1844
82.07***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8156
51.12***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1088 days