V-Lab
Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
199.51%
1 Week
208.14%
1 Month
247.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1088 trading days (~4.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 102.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7494 | 221.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -53.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 4.97*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1844 | 82.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8156 | 51.12*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1088 days
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