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Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

71.21%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

68.78%

decreased by 3.83%

1 Month

63.64%

decreased by 8.97%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

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graph of Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.0000
0.02
βGARCH0.9857
286.22***
γleverage0.0185
7.70***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.1005
2.03**
λ₃tau persistence0.0145
8.73***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9857
286.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0185
7.70***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1005
2.03**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0145
8.73***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days