Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
230.39%
increased by 1.20%
1 Week
231.99%
increased by 2.80%
1 Month
236.32%
increased by 7.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0262 | |
| βGARCH | 0.9090 | |
| γleverage | -0.0261 | |
| λ₁tau intercept | 9.9963 | |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0500 | |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9313 |
0.922
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0262 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9090 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0261 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.9963 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0500 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9313 |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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