V-Lab
Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
71.21%
1 Week
68.78%
1 Month
63.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
| βGARCH | 0.9857 | 286.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.0185 | 7.70*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1005 | 2.03** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0145 | 8.73*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9857 | 286.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0185 | 7.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1005 | 2.03** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0145 | 8.73*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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