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State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

34.95%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

34.88%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Month

36.09%

increased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.0135
1.50
βGARCH0.9099
67.13***
γleverage0.0666
4.42***
λ₁tau intercept0.2361
1.81*
λ₂forecast adj.0.4003
3.59***
λ₃tau persistence0.5540
4.25***

0.957

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0135
1.50
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9099
67.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0666
4.42***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2361
1.81*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4003
3.59***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5540
4.25***

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days