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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

38.77%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

39.13%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

39.64%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0135
7.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9092
276.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0673
18.84***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2313
1.79*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3975
2.02**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5584
2.50**

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

16 days