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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

39.62%

increased by 3.57%

1 Week

40.01%

increased by 3.96%

1 Month

40.52%

increased by 4.47%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0139
7.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9088
274.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0669
18.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2288
1.87*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3887
2.11**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5671
2.71***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days