V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
38.77%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
39.13%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
39.64%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0135 | 7.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9092 | 276.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0673 | 18.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2313 | 1.79* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3975 | 2.02** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5584 | 2.50** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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