V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
34.95%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
34.88%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
36.09%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0135 | 1.50 |
| βGARCH | 0.9099 | 67.13*** |
| γleverage | 0.0666 | 4.42*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2361 | 1.81* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.4003 | 3.59*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5540 | 4.25*** |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0135 | 1.50 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9099 | 67.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0666 | 4.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2361 | 1.81* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4003 | 3.59*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5540 | 4.25*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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