V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
35.94%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
36.22%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
36.41%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0134 | 1.49 |
| βGARCH | 0.9095 | 67.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.0671 | 4.44*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2304 | 1.80* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3964 | 3.61*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5596 | 4.36*** |
0.956
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0134 | 1.49 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9095 | 67.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0671 | 4.44*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2304 | 1.80* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3964 | 3.61*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5596 | 4.36*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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