V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
39.62%
increased by 3.57%
1 Week
40.01%
increased by 3.96%
1 Month
40.52%
increased by 4.47%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0139 | 7.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9088 | 274.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0669 | 18.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2288 | 1.87* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3887 | 2.11** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5671 | 2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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