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Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

2.24%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

2.28%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

2.37%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8693
9.61***
γleverage0.0769
1.68*
λ₁tau intercept0.0241
5.02***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.908

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8693
9.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0769
1.68*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0241
5.02***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days