V-Lab
Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
2.24%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
2.28%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.37%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8693 | 9.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.0769 | 1.68* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0241 | 5.02*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8693 | 9.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0769 | 1.68* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0241 | 5.02*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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