Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
5.90%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
5.78%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
5.38%
decreased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 121 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8531 | 18.97*** |
| γleverage | 0.2223 | 4.33*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0324 | 5.19*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4271 | 3.46*** |
0.964
Persistence19d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8531 | 18.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2223 | 4.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0324 | 5.19*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4271 | 3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
Other Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs