V-Lab
Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
9.12%
1 Week
11.00%
1 Month
16.84%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 101 | |
| αARCH | 0.5000 | 53.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7450 | 192.16*** |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -53.13*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1292 | 6.79*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 1.0000 | 19.71*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 53.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7450 | 192.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -53.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1292 | 6.79*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 1.0000 | 19.71*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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