Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

9.12%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

11.00%

increased by 1.69%

1 Month

16.84%

increased by 7.53%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 10, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 daysInverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow101
αARCH0.5000
53.99***
βGARCH0.7450
192.16***
γleverage-0.5000
-53.13***
λ₁tau intercept0.1292
6.79***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence1.0000
19.71***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
53.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7450
192.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-53.13***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1292
6.79***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

1.0000
19.71***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days