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V-Lab

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

210.71%

increased by 50.89%

1 Week

71,802,875,151,347.52%

increased by 71,802,875,151,187.70%

1 Month

11,811,103,250,755,198,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 11,811,103,250,755,198,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3605
14.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3605
-16.24***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8905
9.64***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.180

Half-life:

0 days