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V-Lab

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

198.20%

decreased by 3.69%

1 Week

192.83%

decreased by 9.06%

1 Month

167.03%

decreased by 34.86%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0039
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6671
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0101
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0461
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1861
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7403

Persistence:

0.676

Half-life:

2 days