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Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

237.15%

decreased by 28.93%

1 Week

235.52%

decreased by 30.56%

1 Month

230.76%

decreased by 35.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.7581
84.46***
γleverage0.3805
27.96***
λ₁tau intercept191.9759

0.948

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7581
84.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3805
27.96***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

191.9759

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days