Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
194.08%
decreased by 1.84%
1 Week
215.10%
increased by 19.18%
1 Month
220.61%
increased by 24.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| αARCH | 0.0049 | 1.18 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 26.49*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 196.1049 |
0.255
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0049 | 1.18 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 26.49*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 196.1049 |
Persistence:
0.255
Half-life:
1 days
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