V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
198.20%
decreased by 3.69%
1 Week
192.83%
decreased by 9.06%
1 Month
167.03%
decreased by 34.86%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0039 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6671 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0101 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0461 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1861 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7403 |
Persistence:
0.676
Half-life:
2 days
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