Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
237.15%
decreased by 28.93%
1 Week
235.52%
decreased by 30.56%
1 Month
230.76%
decreased by 35.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7581 | 84.46*** |
| γleverage | 0.3805 | 27.96*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 191.9759 |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7581 | 84.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3805 | 27.96*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 191.9759 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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