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V-Lab

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

109.58%

increased by 103.75%

1 Week

67.47%

increased by 61.64%

1 Month

33.49%

increased by 27.66%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.3812
βGARCH0.0551
γleverage-0.3385
λ₁tau intercept0.0248
λ₂forecast adj.0.0003
λ₃tau persistence0.0282

0.267

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3812
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0551
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3385
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0248
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0003
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0282

Persistence:

0.267

Half-life:

1 days