V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
210.71%
1 Week
71,802,875,151,347.52%
1 Month
11,811,103,250,755,198,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3605 | 14.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3605 | -16.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8905 | 9.64*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.180
Half-life:
0 days
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