V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
136.38%
1 Week
160.03%
1 Month
195.17%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7068 | 0.62 |
| αARCH | 0.1745 | 1.97** |
| βGARCH | 0.6673 | 4.49*** |
| γleverage | -0.2250 | -0.75 |
| δpower | 0.5044 | 0.81 |
0.810
Persistence3d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7068 | 0.62 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1745 | 1.97** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6673 | 4.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2250 | -0.75 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5044 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.810
Half-life:
3 days
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