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Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

136.38%

decreased by 29.14%

1 Week

160.03%

decreased by 5.49%

1 Month

195.17%

increased by 29.65%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7068
0.62
αARCH0.1745
1.97**
βGARCH0.6673
4.49***
γleverage-0.2250
-0.75
δpower0.5044
0.81

0.810

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7068
0.62
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1745
1.97**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6673
4.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2250
-0.75
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5044
0.81

Persistence:

0.810

Half-life:

3 days