V-Lab
Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
14.00%
increased by 0.58%
1 Week
14.11%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
14.41%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0675 | 3.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0151 | 2.42** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9215 | 48.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 211.91*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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