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V-Lab

Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

14.00%

increased by 0.58%

1 Week

14.11%

increased by 0.69%

1 Month

14.41%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0675
3.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0151
2.42**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9215
48.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
211.91***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
1.25

Persistence:

0.930

Half-life:

10 days