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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Germany ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

19.13%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

19.38%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Month

20.27%

increased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Germany ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 269% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.15 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0294
25.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0839
31.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9144
414.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5148
19.10***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1470
37.55***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days