iShares MSCI Germany ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
19.13%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
19.38%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
20.27%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 269% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.15 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0294 | 25.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0839 | 31.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9144 | 414.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5148 | 19.10*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1470 | 37.55*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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