Skip to main content
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

24.36%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

24.82%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

26.42%

increased by 1.41%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 329% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.37 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0550
16.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0628
21.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9267
329.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4860
15.30***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3710
32.36***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days