iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.36%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
24.82%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
26.42%
increased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 329% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.37 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0550 | 16.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0628 | 21.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9267 | 329.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4860 | 15.30*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3710 | 32.36*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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