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V-Lab

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

21.02%

increased by 2.18%

1 Week

21.10%

increased by 2.26%

1 Month

21.37%

increased by 2.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 371% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.25 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0223
25.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0827
31.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9154
422.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5515
18.47***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2488
37.28***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days