State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
21.02%
increased by 2.18%
1 Week
21.10%
increased by 2.26%
1 Month
21.37%
increased by 2.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 371% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.25 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0223 | 25.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0827 | 31.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9154 | 422.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5515 | 18.47*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2488 | 37.28*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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