V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.66%
1 Week
19.74%
1 Month
20.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4999 | 1.57 |
| αARCH | 0.0857 | 9.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9939 | 246.63*** |
| νDF | 10.1057 | 1.34 |
0.994
Persistence114d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4999 | 1.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0857 | 9.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9939 | 246.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.1057 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
114 days
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