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State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

19.66%

increased by 0.56%

1 Week

19.74%

increased by 0.64%

1 Month

20.02%

increased by 0.92%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~114 daysv = 10.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.4999
1.57
αARCH0.0857
9.83***
βGARCH0.9939
246.63***
νDF10.1057
1.34

0.994

Persistence

114d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4999
1.57
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0857
9.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9939
246.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.1057
1.34

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

114 days