V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
19.75%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
19.83%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
20.12%
decreased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 257% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0118 | 6.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1557 | 35.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9823 | 1,047.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0876 | -23.46*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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