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V-Lab

iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

1.54%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

1.55%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

1.57%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 26, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 133 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

-0.0199
-8.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1501
32.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9948
2,068.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0019
-0.46

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

133 days