iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.54%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
1.55%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
1.57%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 133 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0199 | -8.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1501 | 32.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9948 | 2,068.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0019 | -0.46 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
133 days
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