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V-Lab

iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

1.52%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

1.52%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

1.52%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 26, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0125
4.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0571
63.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
4,520.36***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5018
18.88***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days