V-Lab
CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
18.44%
increased by 2.90%
1 Week
18.83%
increased by 3.29%
1 Month
20.08%
increased by 4.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 8.50 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4007 | 1.61 |
| αARCH | 0.1004 | 2.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9717 | 65.69*** |
| νDF | 8.4971 | 0.44 |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4007 | 1.61 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1004 | 2.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9717 | 65.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4971 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
Other CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs