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CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

21.90%

increased by 0.39%

1 Week

22.06%

increased by 0.55%

1 Month

22.57%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

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graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 8.86 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3981
1.74*
αARCH0.0991
2.73***
βGARCH0.9716
67.92***
νDF8.8581
0.42

0.972

Persistence

24d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3981
1.74*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0991
2.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9716
67.92***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8581
0.42

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days