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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

36.36%

decreased by 1.81%

1 Week

35.97%

decreased by 2.20%

1 Month

34.58%

decreased by 3.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6252
5.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0950
10.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9782
308.48***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.2532
1.79*

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days