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CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

34.54%

increased by 2.57%

1 Week

34.16%

increased by 2.19%

1 Month

32.85%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-lifev = 9.41 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.6097
1.60
αscore0.0965
2.46**
βpersistence0.9756
78.77***
νDF9.4120
0.37

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.6097
1.60
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0965
2.46**
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9756
78.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4120
0.37

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days