CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
36.36%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Week
35.97%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Month
34.58%
decreased by 3.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6252 | 5.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0950 | 10.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9782 | 308.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.2532 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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