V-Lab
CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
21.90%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
22.06%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
22.57%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 8.86 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3981 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.0991 | 2.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9716 | 67.92*** |
| νDF | 8.8581 | 0.42 |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3981 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0991 | 2.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9716 | 67.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.8581 | 0.42 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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