V-Lab
CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
31.36%
decreased by 2.37%
1 Week
31.13%
decreased by 2.60%
1 Month
30.34%
decreased by 3.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5907 | 6.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 11.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9782 | 316.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4744 | 1.75* |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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