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CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

25.21%

decreased by 1.44%

1 Week

25.19%

decreased by 1.46%

1 Month

25.12%

decreased by 1.53%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 9.37 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.4425
1.91*
αARCH0.1013
2.74***
βGARCH0.9715
69.15***
νDF9.3694
0.41

0.972

Persistence

24d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4425
1.91*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1013
2.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9715
69.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.3694
0.41

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days