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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

31.36%

decreased by 2.37%

1 Week

31.13%

decreased by 2.60%

1 Month

30.34%

decreased by 3.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5907
6.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0936
11.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9782
316.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4744
1.75*

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days