CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
34.54%
increased by 2.57%
1 Week
34.16%
increased by 2.19%
1 Month
32.85%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-lifev = 9.41 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.6097 | 1.60 |
| αscore | 0.0965 | 2.46** |
| βpersistence | 0.9756 | 78.77*** |
| νDF | 9.4120 | 0.37 |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.6097 | 1.60 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0965 | 2.46** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9756 | 78.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4120 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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