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CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

21.15%

increased by 1.80%

1 Week

21.35%

increased by 2.00%

1 Month

22.01%

increased by 2.66%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 8.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3936
1.64
αARCH0.0994
2.74***
βGARCH0.9716
66.11***
νDF8.5313
0.43

0.972

Persistence

24d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3936
1.64
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0994
2.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9716
66.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5313
0.43

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days