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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

39.68%

decreased by 1.09%

1 Week

40.79%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

42.29%

increased by 1.52%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0022
5.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0980
2.02**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7141
4.93***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-12.2669
-2.44**
γ223.8108
2.96***
γ3-17.0542
-2.95***
γ43.7909
0.75
γ59.6287
2.27**
γ6-13.0012
-4.52***

Persistence:

0.812

Half-life:

3 days