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V-Lab
V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

18.99%

increased by 3.06%

1 Week

19.51%

increased by 3.58%

1 Month

21.21%

increased by 5.28%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9985
4.22***
αARCH0.1269
4.14***
βGARCH0.8492
23.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0310
-0.39

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9985
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1269
4.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8492
23.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0310
-0.39

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days