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CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

24.30%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Week

24.52%

decreased by 1.03%

1 Month

25.26%

decreased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9796
4.22***
αARCH0.1257
4.20***
βGARCH0.8500
23.56***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0364
-0.51

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9796
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1257
4.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8500
23.56***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0364
-0.51

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days