V-Lab
CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
21.35%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
21.72%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
22.94%
increased by 1.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9882 | 4.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.1250 | 4.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8508 | 23.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0326 | -0.43 |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9882 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1250 | 4.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8508 | 23.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0326 | -0.43 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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