CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
39.68%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
40.79%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
42.29%
increased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0022 | 5.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0980 | 2.02** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7141 | 4.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -12.2669 | -2.44** |
| γ2 | 23.8108 | 2.96*** |
| γ3 | -17.0542 | -2.95*** |
| γ4 | 3.7909 | 0.75 |
| γ5 | 9.6287 | 2.27** |
| γ6 | -13.0012 | -4.52*** |
Persistence:
0.812
Half-life:
3 days
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