CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
25.19%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
25.27%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
25.53%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0680 | 1.91* |
| αARCH | 0.1236 | 3.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8526 | 23.53*** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0680 | 1.91* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1236 | 3.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8526 | 23.53*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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