V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
34.44%
increased by 10.29%
1 Week
34.34%
increased by 10.19%
1 Month
33.95%
increased by 9.80%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0660 | 18.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 27.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9052 | 290.50*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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