State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
29.75%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
29.82%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Month
30.05%
decreased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.93) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0269 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0712 | 30.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9059 | 321.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.9326 | 30.16*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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