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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

29.75%

decreased by 1.36%

1 Week

29.82%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Month

30.05%

decreased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.93) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0269
5.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0712
30.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9059
321.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.9326
30.16***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days