State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
30.82%
increased by 0.60%
1 Week
30.82%
increased by 0.60%
1 Month
30.82%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7641 | 8.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0785 | 6.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8972 | 60.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0027 | -1.56 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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