V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
4.74%
increased by 0.22%
1 Week
4.76%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
4.83%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5908 | 5.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0609 | 1.42 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8521 | 7.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.3855 | 3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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