V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2.65%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
2.67%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
2.69%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0099 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.0973 | 0.90 |
| βGARCH | 0.5579 | 3.14*** |
0.655
Persistence2d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0099 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0973 | 0.90 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5579 | 3.14*** |
Persistence:
0.655
Half-life:
2 days
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