V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
3.77%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
3.78%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
3.80%
decreased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0010 | 1.02 |
| αARCH | 0.0511 | 1.69* |
| βGARCH | 0.9335 | 25.34*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0010 | 1.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0511 | 1.69* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9335 | 25.34*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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