Schwab Core Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4.08%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
4.08%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.09%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 169% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0010 | 3.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0245 | 2.11** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9397 | 103.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0415 | 1.99** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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