V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.15%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.15%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
4.16%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 178% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0010 | 3.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0231 | 2.03** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9415 | 104.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0410 | 2.02** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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