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V-Lab

Schwab Core Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

4.08%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

4.08%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

4.09%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Schwab Core Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 169% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0010
3.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0245
2.11**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9397
103.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0415
1.99**

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days