V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.50%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
4.49%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
4.46%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0009 | 0.82 |
| αARCH | 0.0124 | 0.35 |
| βGARCH | 0.9514 | 29.24*** |
| γleverage | 0.0446 | 0.64 |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 0.82 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0124 | 0.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9514 | 29.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0446 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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