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V-Lab

Schwab Core Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

4.15%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

4.15%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

4.16%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Schwab Core Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 178% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0010
3.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0231
2.03**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9415
104.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0410
2.02**

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days