V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
3.73%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
3.73%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
3.74%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifeδ = 3.00 · super-quadratic power
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0002 | 0.53 |
| αARCH | 0.0170 | 0.80 |
| βGARCH | 0.9522 | 34.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.2607 | 0.65 |
| δpower | 3.0000 | 2.31** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 0.53 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0170 | 0.80 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9522 | 34.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2607 | 0.65 |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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