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V-Lab

Schwab Core Bond ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.51%

increased by 0.35%

1 Week

4.52%

increased by 0.36%

1 Month

4.53%

increased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Schwab Core Bond ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0515
1.71*
βGARCH0.9238
24.59***
γleverage0.2004
1.52

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0515
1.71*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9238
24.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2004
1.52

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days