V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.51%
increased by 0.35%
1 Week
4.52%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
4.53%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0515 | 1.71* |
| βGARCH | 0.9238 | 24.59*** |
| γleverage | 0.2004 | 1.52 |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0515 | 1.71* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9238 | 24.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2004 | 1.52 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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