Leverage Shares 2X Long NIO Daily ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
90.02%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
99.25%
increased by 9.62%
1 Month
105.64%
increased by 16.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.77) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 13.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1409 | 6.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5111 | 32.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.7728 | -2.72*** |
Persistence:
0.652
Half-life:
2 days
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