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V-Lab

Leverage Shares 2X Long NIO Daily ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

69.37%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

69.37%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

69.37%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Leverage Shares 2X Long NIO Daily ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 18, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7835
3.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5096
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-9.6497
-2.06**

Persistence:

0.510

Half-life:

1 days