V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
17.33%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
17.73%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
19.02%
increased by 1.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5540 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0862 | 5.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8846 | 51.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0824 | -2.78*** |
| γ2 | 0.1002 | 2.31** |
| γ3 | 0.0113 | 0.46 |
| γ4 | -0.0930 | -3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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