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State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

17.56%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

17.93%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

19.16%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2407
10.08***
αARCH0.0867
8.62***
βGARCH0.8901
82.34***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0040
4.45***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2407
10.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0867
8.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8901
82.34***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0040
4.45***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days