State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
16.52%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
16.55%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
16.64%
decreased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 205% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 205% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0207 | 5.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.0339 | 3.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9140 | 102.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.0693 | 3.05*** |
0.983
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0207 | 5.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0339 | 3.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9140 | 102.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0693 | 3.05*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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