V-Lab
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
14.66%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
14.76%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
15.12%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 197% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0210 | 22.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0353 | 12.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9126 | 405.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0693 | 12.00*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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