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State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

16.52%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

16.55%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Month

16.64%

decreased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 205% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 205% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0207
5.55***
αARCH0.0339
3.07***
βGARCH0.9140
102.14***
γleverage0.0693
3.05***

0.983

Persistence

39d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0207
5.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0339
3.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9140
102.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0693
3.05***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

39 days