V-Lab
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
16.48%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
16.51%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
16.62%
decreased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 200% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0209 | 22.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0347 | 12.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9132 | 406.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0693 | 12.06*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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