State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.05%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
15.30%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
16.12%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4406 | 9.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0878 | 8.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8882 | 79.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0096 | 4.97*** |
| γ2 | -0.0119 | -4.73*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
Other State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs