V-Lab
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.32%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
16.49%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
17.07%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4407 | 9.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0875 | 8.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8886 | 80.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0097 | 4.99*** |
| γ2 | -0.0119 | -4.75*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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