Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

17.76%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

17.86%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Month

18.19%

decreased by 0.30%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4364
9.96***
αARCH0.0862
8.49***
βGARCH0.8899
80.78***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0096
5.05***
γ2-0.0118
-4.83***

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4364
9.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0862
8.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8899
80.78***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0096
5.05***
γ2-0.0118
-4.83***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days