V-Lab
BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
4.82%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.82%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
4.82%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8750 | 2.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9533 | 9.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.4453 | -0.66 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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