V-Lab
BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
4.73%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.73%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
4.73%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9302 | 2.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9562 | 10.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7125 | -0.45 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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