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V-Lab

BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

5.09%

increased by 0.78%

1 Week

5.78%

increased by 1.47%

1 Month

7.97%

increased by 3.66%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 12, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2520 trading days (~10.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
53.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7497
272.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-37.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

4.5025
2.47**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9173
17.53***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2520 days