Skip to main content
V-Lab

BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

5.26%

increased by 4.14%

1 Week

215,672,830,555.91%

increased by 215,672,830,554.79%

1 Month

7,453,245,467,579,879,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 7,453,245,467,579,879,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 12, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5029
44.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.12
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-44.73***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0480
60.73***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.67

Persistence:

0.253

Half-life:

1 days