V-Lab
BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
5.09%
1 Week
5.78%
1 Month
7.97%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2520 trading days (~10.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 53.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7497 | 272.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -37.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.5025 | 2.47** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9173 | 17.53*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2520 days
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