V-Lab
BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
5.26%
1 Week
215,672,830,555.91%
1 Month
7,453,245,467,579,879,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5029 | 44.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.12 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -44.73*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0480 | 60.73*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.253
Half-life:
1 days
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