V-Lab
BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
4.21%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.21%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
4.21%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 20.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0702 | 7.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0363 | 0.78 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9099 | 7.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 20.4493 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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