V-Lab
BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
4.31%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
4.30%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
4.27%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0711 | 28.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0314 | 1.28 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8985 | 6.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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