Skip to main content
V-Lab

BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

4.31%

increased by 0.14%

1 Week

4.30%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

4.27%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 12, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0711
28.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0314
1.28
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8985
6.64***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

200.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.898

Half-life:

6 days