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BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

4.21%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

4.21%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

4.21%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 12, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 20.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0702
7.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0363
0.78
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9099
7.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

20.4493
0.03

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days