Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.70%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
13.70%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
13.70%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 200.00 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7453 | 0.66 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9566 | 0.01 |
| νDF | 200.0000 | 0.00 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7453 | 0.66 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9566 | 0.01 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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