V-Lab
Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
13.84%
1 Week
13.84%
1 Month
13.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7597 | 0.58 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 0.00 |
| νDF | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7597 | 0.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 0.00 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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