V-Lab
Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
13.44%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
13.49%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
13.59%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7428 | 6.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0194 | 0.12 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8808 | 5.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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