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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

27.72%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Week

27.62%

decreased by 1.27%

1 Month

27.23%

decreased by 1.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3311
11.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0896
28.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9834
649.52***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.4629
3.74***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days