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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

22.75%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

22.79%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

22.96%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 10.48 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3153
2.87***
αARCH0.0894
7.11***
βGARCH0.9832
162.56***
νDF10.4780
0.93

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3153
2.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0894
7.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9832
162.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.4780
0.93

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days