iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
21.91%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
21.99%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Month
22.26%
decreased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 10.54 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3117 | 2.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0893 | 7.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9832 | 163.67*** |
| νDF | 10.5394 | 0.92 |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3117 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0893 | 7.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9832 | 163.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.5394 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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