iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
32.26%
increased by 2.24%
1 Week
32.03%
increased by 2.01%
1 Month
31.18%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 10.60 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.3442 | 2.84*** |
| αscore | 0.0900 | 7.03*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9831 | 160.82*** |
| νDF | 10.5998 | 0.91 |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.3442 | 2.84*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0900 | 7.03*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9831 | 160.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.5998 | 0.91 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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