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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

27.28%

decreased by 1.64%

1 Week

27.18%

decreased by 1.74%

1 Month

26.84%

decreased by 2.08%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3266
11.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0894
28.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9833
645.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.4089
3.76***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days