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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

21.91%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

21.99%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Month

22.26%

decreased by 0.51%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 10.54 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3117
2.89***
αARCH0.0893
7.12***
βGARCH0.9832
163.67***
νDF10.5394
0.92

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3117
2.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0893
7.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9832
163.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.5394
0.92

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days