V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
22.75%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
22.79%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
22.96%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 10.48 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3153 | 2.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.0894 | 7.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9832 | 162.56*** |
| νDF | 10.4780 | 0.93 |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3153 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0894 | 7.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9832 | 162.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.4780 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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