V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
22.33%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
22.40%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Month
22.62%
decreased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3160 | 11.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 28.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9831 | 643.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.4443 | 3.74*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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