Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

32.26%

increased by 2.24%

1 Week

32.03%

increased by 2.01%

1 Month

31.18%

increased by 1.16%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 10.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.3442
2.84***
αscore0.0900
7.03***
βpersistence0.9831
160.82***
νDF10.5998
0.91

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.3442
2.84***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0900
7.03***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9831
160.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.5998
0.91

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days