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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

22.33%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

22.40%

decreased by 1.33%

1 Month

22.62%

decreased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3160
11.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0899
28.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9831
643.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.4443
3.74***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days