V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
27.28%
decreased by 1.64%
1 Week
27.18%
decreased by 1.74%
1 Month
26.84%
decreased by 2.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3266 | 11.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0894 | 28.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9833 | 645.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.4089 | 3.76*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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